Although it is not possible to say where the next blow will be in Africa, the deficiencies in the governance systems of many countries give a clue as to which states are at risk.
By Hamza Kyeyune – Update : 01.08.2024
A chain of African countries stretching from coast to coast and ruled by leaders who seized power by force has become the longest corridor of military rule in the world. The military takeover of the West African country of Niger completed a chain of coups in Africa that stretched from Guinea in the west to Sudan in the east.
An entire region south of the Sahara has seen successful, albeit unconstitutional, government revolutions in the past three years, removing both democratically elected presidents and corrupt family dynasties.
According to a United Nations report, there have been 98 successful coups in Africa since 1952. Jonathan Powell, a professor at the University of Central Florida, stated that the most coups took place in Sudan, and the most recent coup in 2021 sowed the seeds of a military conflict and eventually turned into a large-scale war.
Where will the next blow be in Africa?
Although it is impossible to say where the next blow will take place in Africa, the deficiencies in the government structures of many countries give a clue as to which states are at risk.
The holding of sham elections, which are seen as an effort to provide a democratic cover for authoritarian rule in many African countries, is a fertile ground for the military and political elites to consider unconstitutional government changes as an alternative.
They also realize that, given the public discontent, they will likely encounter little resistance to their actions. There are signs that this message is becoming increasingly accepted. Some weak leaders have made significant changes in their military leadership. Many institutions have “reaffirmed their loyalty to those in power, perpetually worried about being overthrown.” and such preemptive moves by those who are constantly worried about being overthrown are Such preemptive moves are seen by many as a sign that totalitarian leaders aim to protect their regimes from coups.
This situation has also been reinforced by various regional and international organizations that have made their reactions to coups clear and condemned them as undemocratic interventions in political systems.
The African Union (EU) simultaneously suspended countries due to constitutional changes and demanded a return to civil law rule. However, the lack of sanction mechanisms to deter coups and the fact that post-coup reactions generally result in the demand for democratic elections are considered as such reactions unintentionally legitimizing the actions of the rebels and democratic performance continuing to decline. Each country added to the list is another indication that the development of democracy in Africa is gradually weakening.
Why Do Citizens Celebrate the Coup Plotters?
Although African leaders have expressed concern about the blow to democracy on a continent that they say has slipped away from decades of hard-fought progress and successful development, we see citizens celebrating by praising the rebels after each successful coup.
While it may be tempting to interpret the street celebrations that followed the overthrow of leaders who won elections with a landslide victory, as democracy incompatible with African values, many interviewees say citizens have not lost faith in democracy and do not want to live under military rule.
Citizens’ celebration of military interventions is an expression of their frustration with the performance of democratically elected rulers who have failed to deliver on their promises.
Citizens celebrate in the hope that the insurgents will lead to more effective civilian rule, which fits the political class’s long pattern of failure to respond to economic hardships and security and political instability in their countries.
People are aware that while there are constitutional ways to correct a fraudulent election, there is no way to correct a coup d’état, and for this reason, democracy remains the preferred system of government even in countries where it is not yet understood.
This is mainly due to the fact that military regimes have a fluffy record of violating human rights and leading to economic stagnation.
The coup plotters are also aware that it is unacceptable to undermine their own democratic system, so you will hear them imply that they intend to restore the rule of law and establish stronger democratic systems.
Anti-French Rhetoric
Most of the governments overthrown by coups in Africa were countries that were once French colonies. In recent years, the increasing anti-French sentiment has become more and more open, which has led to protests by citizens that have paved the way for coups. The way the elected government has managed the national security situation and the initially welcomed conviction that French troops have fallen short of combating insurgencies linked to ISIS and al-Qaeda, which are believed to be operating in the Sahel region of West Africa, is disappointing.
According to the Global Terrorism Index, published annually by the Institute for Economics and Peace, during France’s more than a decade of operations against terrorist organizations, the Sahel has surpassed the Middle East and South Asia to become the global epicenter of terrorist organizations, with the death rate rising from 1 percent in 2007 to 6,701 in 2022 to 43 percent. Coup plotters in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger came to power on a rising anti-French wave.
Analysts say discontent with French influence in Senegal, which has been the scene of political unrest over the past year, and in Côte d’Ivoire, where the president is an ally of Paris, could be a motivating factor for the rebels.
Result
The trend of coups and their changing dynamics, which are relatively non-violent in nature, fast and enthusiastically welcomed among the people, and which are significantly different from the previous coups in which bloodshed were shed, require an appropriate approach. Without addressing the issue in accordance with its changing manifestations, the possibility of further spread is inevitable
